Zillow December 2021-December 2022 Dwelling Worth and Gross sales Forecast

  • Zillow expects dwelling costs to extend by 16.4% between December 2021 and December 2022.
  • Present dwelling gross sales in 2022 are anticipated to complete 6.57 million in 2022, up 7% from the estimated 6.14 million gross sales in 2021.

Present dwelling gross sales are anticipated to develop via 2022, near ranges not seen since 2005, whereas annual dwelling value progress is anticipated to peak and plateau within the early months of 2022, reaching some extent by the top of subsequent 12 months. will decelerate.

Dwelling costs are anticipated to develop by 4.1% in Q1 2022, and to rise to 16.4% from the top of 2021 to 2022, with the tempo of annual progress anticipated to succeed in 20% in February, progressively growing throughout the remainder of the 12 months. Will slowly decelerate. The near-term, three-month forecast is up barely from the beforehand anticipated 3.7% progress from November to February. Lengthy-term expectations for dwelling value progress have additionally risen: we beforehand anticipated 14.3% progress between November 2021 and November 2022. The robust long-term outlook is pushed by our expectations of constant tight market situations, with demand for housing exceeding provide of obtainable properties.

About 6.6 million current dwelling gross sales are anticipated to shut in 2022, up 7% from 2021. Present dwelling gross sales quantity rose to six.46 million (SAAR) in November, extending a streak of stronger-than-expected month-to-month positive aspects towards the top of 1. -and-down 2021 (December 2021 Present dwelling gross sales knowledge scheduled to be launched by the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors on January 20, 2022). This better-than-expected efficiency is a key contributor to the energy in our near-term outlook for the sequence.

Nevertheless, there stays a draw back danger to our forecast. Elevated inflation raises the danger of near-term financial coverage tightening, which can end in increased mortgage charges and weigh on housing demand. For the primary time since spring 2020, the 30-year mounted charge broke above 3.5% this week. Larger charges are compounding consumers’ struggles with affordability, and so they might even deter some present owners from shifting ahead, elevating month-to-month mortgage prices. The properties price the identical as their present properties. By lowering the urge for food of each consumers and sellers on this market, rising charges may scale back gross sales quantity this 12 months, with an unsure impression on dwelling costs.

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